In a city of 5 million people, there are 1 million politicians. 10 persons are selected randomly from the city. What is the probability that at most three of them are politicians?
Correct Answer: Option D
In a city of 5 million people, there are 1 million politicians.
⇒ Probability that a randomly chosen person is politician = 1 million/5 million = 1/5
⇒ Probability that a randomly chosen person is not a politician = 1 - 1/5 = 4/5
10 persons are selected randomly. To have at most three of them as politicians, there can be 0, 1, 2 or 3 politicians.
Probability that there is 0 politician = 10C0 × (1 – (1/5))10 = 1 × (4/5)10 = (4/5)10
Probability that there is 1 politician = 10C1 × (1 – (1/5))9 × (1/5)1= 10 × (4/5)9 × (1/5) = 2 × (4/5)9
Probability that there are 2 politicians = 10C2 × (1 – (1/5))8 × (1/5)2 = 45 × (4/5)8 × (1/25) = (9/5) × (4/5)8
Probability that there are 3 politicians = 10C3 × (1 – (1/5))7× (1/5)3 = 120 × (4/5)7 × (1/125) = (24/25) × (4/5)7
∴ Probability that at most three of the chosen persons are politicians = (4/5)10+ 2 × (4/5)9+ (9/5) × (4/5)8 + (24/25) × (4/5)7 = 4.192 × (4/5)7
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